Looking back at the UK’s first trade deals after Brexit, David Henig, director of the UK trade policy project at the European Center for International Political Economy think tank, says there is little sign of material impact.
“There is currently no evidence that the new trade agreements with Australia and New Zealand have significantly affected the UK economy,” he said, adding that “there is no indication so far of a permanent increase in trade.”
“Exceeding forecasts”
As the budget approaches, Reeves’ growth ambitions look increasingly uncertain.
The OBR lowered the UK’s productivity outlook, potentially increasing government borrowing by £14 billion and £20 billion. Last week, figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in September.
Publicly, at least, the Chancellor remained optimistic.
“My job as chancellor is to try to beat those predictions,” she said last month, “and what we’re doing with these trade deals with India, the US and the EU, the investment we’ve got, particularly from big tech companies in the UK, shows that we have a huge amount to offer as a place to grow, start and scale a business.
“We will continue to secure these investments in all parts of Britain, create good jobs, pay wages and increase our productivity, meaning we will start to see these figures translate into economic growth and prosperity for workers.”
James Fitzgerald contributed to this report.
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