Brussels, which demanded more concessions, must have had the impression that someone had decided to humiliate it. Of course, this was not the intention and officials in New Delhi were surprised and intrigued by the anger in Europe.
Clearly, both sides are having difficulty understanding each other. But at the moment it seems that the Europeans are trying harder than the Indians. They stopped complaining about New Delhi’s continued engagement with Moscow, learned to look the other way while Russian oil is refined and resold, and even put up with photographs of President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping kissing Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a recent summit in China.
India must reciprocate. No one expects the military to end its longstanding relationship with Russia in the near future — that can’t happen, if only because it must maintain supply chains and repair networks for almost all of its weapons platforms. But own goals like Zapad drills are completely useless. At a time when drones are testing NATO’s eastern borders, it is unclear what use the Indian army could derive from training with its counterparts in Iran, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mali.
The official defense — that the Army sent only a few soldiers to the exercise, while simultaneously sending many more to U.S.-led war exercises in Alaska and had participated in previous iterations of Zapad — has cut no ice in Europe. India is waiting for Europe to invest in its future; and anyone looking to invest knows that your main job is to figure out what your investors’ red lines are and try not to cross them before anything is signed.
It is only a matter of months before an agreement is reached. Earlier this year, Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen surprised their officials by declaring that a free trade deal would be reached by the end of the year. But the two sides still need to overcome a series of sticking points on agriculture, cars and their parts, as well as wine and spirits, not to mention the contentious issue of India’s quality control regime which interferes unpredictably and irrationally with trade. New Delhi’s bureaucracy might be distracted by the fires being lit by the White House, but from a longer-term perspective, the EU deal is even more important.
If the deadline set by leaders is not met, it may never happen. President Donald Trump certainly doesn’t want Europe to extend a lifeline to New Delhi. He demanded that instead of liberalizing trade, the EU impose 100% tariffs on India and China to punish them for buying Russian oil. While his European counterparts politely ignored the photos of Modi, Xi and Putin, Trump said it meant the South Asian nation was “lost” to “deeper, darker China.”
New Delhi should recognize that there is little time left to lock down the Europeans before American pressure begins to be felt. Even within the EU, the political consensus could break down, as more populists are elected who are more friendly toward China and Russia and wary of any new deals with countries like India.
India needs a little more empathy for European concerns about its own security. She has always surrounded her collaboration with the United States, including through the Quad, with a message that she was not acting against China. At the very least, any further engagement with Russia should be accompanied by similar signals. European leaders will not give special treatment to a country they also fear is aligning with Moscow against the continent.
Europeans, for their part, need to be more flexible with their trade requirements. India has signed numerous agreements in recent years, but they contained far fewer demands than Brussels expected. Commission bureaucrats will have to abandon some of their valuable regulatory barriers if they are to reach a deal this year.
The Indians should just make sure they appear as a reliable long-term partner. A country grappling with a China that expects complete submission and an America that has imposed 50% tariffs on its products is running out of partners and options. There is currently political will in Europe for an agreement with India that encompasses trade, investment and defense. Modi should seize the opportunity – before Trump and Xi ensure this offer is no longer offered.
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