Since the dropout of the “biggest trade agreement of all time” last month, the EU and the United States have faced each other several times on what has been really agreed – but on economic security, they seem firmly aligned, with China in sight.
Despite the offer of contradictory accounts of the agreement, the two parties explicitly committed to “improve the resilience of the supply chain”, “approach non -commercial policies” and “cooperate” on investment screening and export controls.
All this appears a barely veiled reference to the reduction of dependence on China for strategic products and the protection of the western industries of increasingly ferocious Chinese competition.
Economic security was also “one of the easiest questions” during the recent EU-US talks, said a senior European Commission.
“All the economic security tools and instruments we have made for a good conversation,” said the manager, adding that new discussions are planned.
The use of an almost identical language suggests that the EU – officially committed to “dis -drilling but not decoupling” of China – is close to the most difficult position of America, according to analysts.
“I think this is just the final sign that the EU is launching its share with the United States on China,” said Varg Folkman, an analyst at the European Policy Center, a reflection group based in Brussels. “I really think it will be seen like that by the Chinese – they would be silly not to do it.”
Beijing, who condemned previous American trade agreements UNITED KINGDOM And VietnamReacted slightly more slightly to the EU – US agreement.
“We firmly oppose the decision of any party to conclude an agreement at the price of interest in China,” said China Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun Last Monday – one day after the announcement of the EU -US agreement.
Not
Despite large commitments, Brussels has given little clarity on how the EU and the United States plan to join Beijing’s “overcapacity” or its grip on the global supply of critical minerals, essential for cars, smartphones and other advanced technologies.
“It seems to me that all the information on the EU -US agreement has not been published – especially with regard to the part of economic security,” said Alicia García Herrero, principal researcher to the Bruegel’s thinking group. “We miss a large part of this image.”
The senior commission has declared that an upcoming EU -US joint declaration on the agreement – which is “90 to 95% ready” – will not offer specific details on economic security cooperation, but will rather contain a “fairly general language” that Brussels “will develop (as) will be there”.
García Herrero said that the vagueness is probably intentional, because China is not only the second world economy, but also the second EU trading partner.
Japan, which concluded a similar agreement with Washington last month, also refrained from determining the way it plans to cooperate with the United States compared to its Chinese policy, she noted.
“The Japanese have not put their disagreements on paper and what they will do, because it is too risky,” said García Herrero. “For Europe, this would also raise questions:” Do we enter China? ” So there is nothing to do.
Tit for (trade) spitting
The agreement also takes place within the framework of the worsening of EU-Chinese links, long tense by human rights concerns and the status of Taiwan. The introduction by Beijing of scanning export controls on critical minerals earlier this year – which came in response to Trump’s taxation by a general tax of 145% on Beijing – rocked EU political decision -makers and temporary forced production ferrons in Europe.
The growing bonds of China with Russia have exacerbated tensions while European leaders rush to support support for Ukraine in the midst of Russian attacks and the fall of the United States.
However, Trump, who congratulated Russian President Vladimir Putin and promised to end the Ukraine War “within 24 hoursRecently changed the tone – threatening “secondary prices” on India and China for buying Russian oil.
Some analysts suggest that Brussels may have won this change as a concession during commercial negotiations.
“On the issue of economic security in Europe, the United States has, in my opinion, supposed to offer something: it puts pressure on India and China to reduce links with Russia,” said García Herrero.
“The United States wants to surround China and cut it from supply chains. Europe says:” Very well, I am with you “-but they want the United States to become harder in Russia.”
“A fragile foundation”
However, others wonder if the EU-US agreement offers a lot of basis for economic or political cooperation.
“Given the overall tremor of the agreement”, the commitment to stimulate cooperation in economic security “resembles a fragile base for serious transatlantic cooperation,” said Nils Redeker, deputy director of Jacques Delors Center.
Redeker argued that the EU Chinese policy had been weakened by “internal divisions” which also seriously hampered block negotiations with Washington.
He underlined the net divisions between EU’s capitals on the decision of the Commission last year to impose prices on Chinese electric vehicles. The samples were strongly supported by France, but fiercely opposed by Germany, of which the automotive sector oriented towards export is strongly linked to the Chinese market.
“A key lesson in the agreement with the United States is that the EU has still not found its strategic foot in a rapidly evolving commercial landscape,” said Redeker. “And for the moment, the same goes for his approach to China.”
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