The key diplomatic victory here is that it leaves the United Kingdom open to conclude a complete EU agreement, for example, food standards.
On the economic level, this American agreement is relatively small, although important for the very specific sectors.
He looks back on some of the commercial damage caused by Trump’s initial announcement, in particular to the automotive industry. An initiate told me that the transition from 27.5% to 10% would allow British cars exporters of more than 1 billion pounds sterling of what was an “existential threat” for industry.
Although it is no longer existential, it remains painful. We do not know how the quota will work, how it will explain foreign parts, for example, Chinese batteries, and is limited to 100,000 cars. Jlr Many New Jaguar were launched in the United States in the hope of growing this number.
The back of the medal is agricultural access to the United States, for example for beef, which is also subject to a quota. Other things were notable by their absence. There was no decision on the digital service tax or on prices for American cars.
The biggest decision, however, is the fact that the so-called 10% rate remains reciprocal, even if the United Kingdom buys more from the United States than the reverse. This confirms that the price cannot be negotiable for anyone and could have wider consequences.
The slideshow of the Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, seemed to indicate a rather unilateral “agreement” where the United Kingdom had offered “unprecedented access” to the United States to save its automotive industry.
The United States had tripled prices on the United Kingdom by 3.4% to 10%, and the United Kingdom reduced its tariffs by two thirds by 5.1% to 1.8%. It does not seem very “reciprocal”.
There is an important “but” here. The United Kingdom and the United States see these figures through very different objectives.
From the point of view of the United States, the sorting of prices is a tax on foreigners who “wins” income for the US Treasury. From the United Kingdom’s point of view, the price is a tax on national consumers that increases inflation, therefore a lower value is in itself.
At the Bank of England, the lack of reprisals and acceptance of the diverted goods in Asia are among the reasons why inflation is now increasing more slowly, which has allowed the drop in interest rates today with more to come.
Governor Andrew Bailey told me that he hoped that the agreement would mark the first of many who would calm world trade tensions.
The real victory here could be that this agreement on the prices will maintain the gentle United States while leaving the door open to a substantive agreement with the European Union.
By maintaining the food norms of the United Kingdom and not, for example, by accepting the beef treated with hormones or chlorinated chicken, a “complete” food and agricultural export agreement with the EU, similar to that of Switzerland, is now clearly on the cards during the next fifteen. This could reduce post-Brexit administrative formalities for key exporters in both directions.
Then, you have a global image of a growing economy, with good trade relations with the United States, the EU, India and soon the Gulf too, with reduced rates.
The government will try to project the United Kingdom as an oasis of trade and political stability in a tumultuous world, after years of agitation. It is a world far from the negativity of the recession at the turn of the year, and it could well work.
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