The next elections in EU member states can delay the talks from the Indian-EU free trade agreement

New Delhi: The next elections in several European Union member states (EU), notably in Germany, Romania and Croatia, should delay the plans of India to finalize the free trade agreement (ALE) with The block of 27 countries, two people aware of the said matter.

Although the next series of ALE negotiations is expected in the first quarter of 2025, political transitions in the main EU countries can modify priorities and hamper the progress of the commercial pact.

Germany, the greatest economy in the EU, will hold its federal elections on February 23, followed by the elections of the State of Hamburg on March 25, which should both dominate the political discourse of the country.

The ninth round of the ALE negotiations took place in New Delhi from September 23 to 27, 2024. The EU remains the largest trading partner in India, the bilateral trade in goods reaching 124 billion euros in the calendar year 2023, representing 12.2% of the total trade in India. The EU is also the second export destination in India, with a share of 17.5%, just behind the United States at 17.6%.

Electoral policy can launch commercial discussions in uncertainty, because various political parties have different political priorities. More recently, the change of government in the United Kingdom has delayed AFT talks. It is not yet certain when the negotiations resume.

Pending from the polls

The discussions for the 14th and last round of the ALE with the United Kingdom began in January 2024 but were suspended in May after the announcement of the elections. Even after the training of a new Labor government in July, talks did not resume.

“The next elections in EU member states are a question of concern and are likely to cause delays in the finalization of the terms of negotiations, because each Member State has its own priorities and concerns which must be dealt with during the process “,” Said the first of the two people mentioned above.

In Romania, the presidential elections are scheduled for March 23, with a possible second round on April 6. This election will decide that the head of state of Romania, an important player in foreign policy and national security issues.

Meanwhile, Croatia has already started its electoral process, the first round of its presidential election held on December 29, 2024, and the second round scheduled for January 12.

“We are in constant contact with the EU team and we hope to go ahead, because we have not yet received official communication concerning the postponement of talks,” said the second person.

Citing the case of the United Kingdom, this person said: “The process was underway even during the elections in India, but was interrupted by the United Kingdom.”

Experts warn that political uncertainties within individual member states often slow decision -making at the EU level, as trade negotiations require consensus between the 27 members.

Timelines that overlap

“The delays overlapping these elections in major EU economies can reduce the empty of the block on external negotiations, including India-EU FTA,” said Abhash Kumar, deputy professor, economy of the economy ‘University of Delhi.

“The results of these elections should influence not only national policies within the EU, but also the internal cohesion of the block and its ability to effectively meet global challenges,” he said.

The requests sent an email to the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce and the EU remained unanswered until the time of the press.

During the 9th cycle of talks, India and the EU discussed a 12 -point program, which included deforestation, electric vehicles, sustainability, carbon tax or adjustment mechanism Carbon borders (CBAM), health and phytosanitary measures (SPS), technical commercial barriers, technical commercial barriers, technical commercial barriers, textiles, service services for IT professionals, trade of more goods and Services, alcohol taxes, among others.

“Regular electoral cycles through individual European countries, and even periodic elections at the continental level (MEP), always tend to reduce progress in trade agreements, with snap surveys in countries such as that imminent in Germany, Only by accentuating the questions, “said Datesh D Parulekar, assistant professor, international relations, Goa University.

“That said, the countries that should lead the European presidencies in the three years that have followed will not help things either, because they and their exemption dispensation are considered more focused on internal discord, rather What to forge commercial links outside, in the time of increasing protectionism and prioritization of close economic interests, “said Parulekar.

Germany, Romania and Croatia play important roles in the training of the EU commercial agenda, with Germany at the head of economic negotiations, Romania contributing to strategic discussions in Eastern Europe and in Croatia connecting the EU Agreement.